dayHigh Win Ratemean-reversionsimpleBest TF: 15mFailed out-of-sampleTV: Compiled (Pine v6 PASS)

RSI-2 Mean Reversion

Connors RSI-2 oversold/overbought with a 200-SMA trend filter. Enter on extreme RSI readings, exit on reversion.

Profitability — TV multi-year derived

NEGATIVE EV
RM/Day
-100
net MYR ÷ trading days
Trades/Day
0.9
avg trade frequency
Monthly Est
RM -2,209
RM/day × 22 days
Trading Days
1,038
2022-01-01 → 2026-04-25
Philosophy

Short-lookback RSI catches true exhaustion. Pair it with a long-term trend filter so you only mean-revert in the direction of the bigger tide.

Walk-forward status: Failed out-of-sample

Every variant we walk-forward-tested collapsed out-of-sample (OOS SQN < 1.0 or negative). The in-sample numbers shown below are the RAW backtest — they did NOT transfer to unseen data. Reject for live trading.

This strategy: Mode A walk-forward on legacy_5m: all 3 rsi2 variants failed OOS (best was r2_10/90 with OOS SQN -0.85). Rolling Mode B: rsi2 variants never appeared in the top-5 train in any of the 4 windows. The featured legacy_15m result is in-sample only — the edge did not transfer to unseen data.

Authoritative result · TV multi-year backtest

TradingView 5m, multi-year history

TV UNPROFITABLE
Net (MYR)
-104,205
Profit Factor
0.24
Win rate
24.7%
Trades
963
Max DD (MYR)
+104,250

Catastrophic on TV multi-year 5m. -104k MYR, PF 0.24. The 30-tick SL against a 2-period RSI on low-volatility palm oil 5-min bars means stops get hit ~75% of the time before RSI can revert. The 1-month 62% WR was sampling luck.

Tested 2026-04-25. This is the load-bearing evidence — it overrides the 1-month sweep below.

Local 1-month sweep — in-sample only, weak signal

In-sample only — weak signal
SQN
1.68
Profit Factor
2.03
Win rate
61.7%
Trades
47
Net profit
MYR +3,865
Max drawdown
MYR +2,015
Dataset
legacy_15m
Timeframe
15m

Strategy properties

Style
day
Profile
High Win Rate
Trades / day
2.10
Avg bars held
TV compile status
Compiled (Pine v6 PASS)
Walk-forward
Failed out-of-sample
Frequent small wins; rare losses. Suits traders who hate losing streaks.

Parameters

rsiPeriod
2
longThreshold
20
shortThreshold
80
smaPeriod
200

Applies to

  • Market: FCPO (Crude Palm Oil Futures, Bursa Malaysia)
  • Timeframe: 15m
  • Style: Day trading (minutes to hours)
  • Complexity: 1 rule, plug-and-play

When it works

Range-bound / low-volatility regimes. Avoid strong trending sessions.

Pine Script coming soon

Related strategies (mean-reversion)

Full raw backtest result
{
  "dataset": "legacy_15m",
  "tf": "15m",
  "params": {
    "rsiPeriod": 2,
    "longThreshold": 20,
    "shortThreshold": 80,
    "smaPeriod": 200
  },
  "trades": 47,
  "winRate": 61.7,
  "netProfitMYR": 3865,
  "profitFactor": 2.03,
  "sqn": 1.68,
  "maxDrawdownMYR": 2015
}