Position Sizing
Pengenalan
Position sizing adalah salah satu aspek PALING PENTING dalam trading, tapi sering diabaikan oleh trader baru.
Kenapa penting?
- Menentukan berapa banyak anda boleh rugi per trade
- Protect capital dari major drawdowns
- Membolehkan anda survive losing streaks
- Foundation untuk long-term profitability
"Position sizing is the difference between amateur and professional traders."
Apa Itu Position Sizing?
Definisi
Position sizing adalah proses menentukan berapa banyak lot/unit yang anda trade berdasarkan:
- Modal anda
- Risk per trade
- Stop loss distance
Formula Asas
Position Size = Risk Amount ÷ (Stop Loss × Tick Value)
Untuk FCPO:
Tick Value = RM 25 per tick per lot
Contoh:
Risk Amount: RM 250
Stop Loss: 10 ticks
Position Size = RM 250 ÷ (10 × RM 25) = RM 250 ÷ RM 250 = 1 lot
The 1-2% Rule
Konsep
Never risk more than 1-2% of your capital on a single trade.
| Capital | 1% Risk | 2% Risk |
|---|---|---|
| RM 10,000 | RM 100 | RM 200 |
| RM 20,000 | RM 200 | RM 400 |
| RM 50,000 | RM 500 | RM 1,000 |
| RM 100,000 | RM 1,000 | RM 2,000 |
Kenapa 1-2%?
Math of survival:
| Risk per Trade | Losing Streak to Lose 50% |
|---|---|
| 10% | 7 losses |
| 5% | 14 losses |
| 2% | 35 losses |
| 1% | 70 losses |
Dengan 1% risk, anda perlu 70 consecutive losses untuk kehilangan separuh modal!
Ini memberikan anda STAYING POWER.
Cara Kira Position Size
Step-by-Step
Step 1: Determine Risk Amount
Risk Amount = Capital × Risk Percentage
Contoh:
Capital: RM 20,000
Risk: 2%
Risk Amount = RM 20,000 × 0.02 = RM 400
Step 2: Determine Stop Loss (in ticks)
Based on chart analysis:
Support at 4,190
Entry at 4,200
SL at 4,185 (below support)
SL Distance = 4,200 - 4,185 = 15 ticks
Step 3: Calculate Position Size
Position Size = Risk Amount ÷ (SL Ticks × RM 25)
Position Size = RM 400 ÷ (15 × RM 25)
Position Size = RM 400 ÷ RM 375
Position Size = 1.07 lots
Round DOWN to 1 lot
Complete Example
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Capital | RM 20,000 |
| Risk % | 2% |
| Risk Amount | RM 400 |
| Entry | 4,200 |
| Stop Loss | 4,185 |
| SL Distance | 15 ticks |
| Tick Value | RM 25 |
| Position Size | 1 lot |
Position Size Calculator
Quick Reference Table
For 2% Risk:
| Capital | 10 tick SL | 15 tick SL | 20 tick SL |
|---|---|---|---|
| RM 10,000 | 0.8 (1 lot) | 0.5 (1 lot) | 0.4 (0 lot*) |
| RM 20,000 | 1.6 (1 lot) | 1.07 (1 lot) | 0.8 (1 lot) |
| RM 30,000 | 2.4 (2 lots) | 1.6 (1 lot) | 1.2 (1 lot) |
| RM 50,000 | 4 lots | 2.7 (2 lots) | 2 lots |
| RM 100,000 | 8 lots | 5.3 (5 lots) | 4 lots |
*Jika calculation < 0.5, don't trade atau reduce SL distance.
Position Sizing Mistakes
Mistake 1: Fixed Lot Size
Salah:
- "Saya selalu trade 2 lots"
- Regardless of SL distance or account size
Problem:
- 2 lots dengan 10 tick SL = RM 500 risk
- 2 lots dengan 30 tick SL = RM 1,500 risk
- Inconsistent risk!
Betul:
- Calculate lot size based on SL for EACH trade
- Same DOLLAR risk, different lot sizes
Mistake 2: Increasing Size After Wins
Salah:
- Win 3 trades: "I'm hot! Trade 5 lots next!"
- Lose next trade: Big loss wipes gains
Betul:
- Stick to position sizing rules
- Increase gradually after SUSTAINED profitability
Mistake 3: Decreasing Size After Losses
Salah:
- Lose 3 trades: "Trade 0.5 lot to be safe"
- Next trade wins but small profit
Betul:
- Keep consistent sizing based on % risk
- Trust your system, not emotions
Mistake 4: All-In Mentality
Salah:
- "This is a sure winner! 10 lots!"
- If wrong: Account destroyed
Betul:
- No trade is "sure"
- Max 2% risk per trade, always
Position Sizing For Different Scenarios
Scenario 1: Small Account (< RM 10,000)
| Challenge | Solution |
|---|---|
| 2% risk = very small amount | Accept smaller position sizes |
| Cannot trade some setups | Only trade tight SL setups |
| Slow growth | Focus on learning, not earning |
Example: RM 5,000 account
- 2% risk = RM 100
- With 10 tick SL: Can trade ~0.4 lot
- Reality: Trade 1 lot with tight SL only
Scenario 2: Medium Account (RM 10,000 - 50,000)
This is the "sweet spot" for learning:
- Meaningful position sizes
- Room for proper risk management
- Can trade most setups
Example: RM 25,000 account
- 2% risk = RM 500
- With 10 tick SL: 2 lots
- With 20 tick SL: 1 lot
Scenario 3: Large Account (> RM 50,000)
| Challenge | Solution |
|---|---|
| Position too large for market | Split into multiple entries |
| Slippage on large orders | Use limit orders |
| Overconfidence | Maintain strict % rules |
Scaling: How To Increase Size
When To Increase
Only increase position size when:
- Account has grown significantly (e.g., +30%)
- Consistently profitable for 3+ months
- Win rate and RRR are stable
How To Increase
Gradual approach:
- Current: 1 lot per trade
- After sustained growth: 1.5 lots
- After more growth: 2 lots
- Never jump more than 50% increase
NOT:
- "I feel good, let's do 3 lots!"
- "This setup is perfect, 5 lots!"
Position Sizing With Multiple Positions
Scenario: 2 Active Trades
Rule: Total risk should not exceed 4-6%
| Trade | Risk | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Trade 1 | 2% | First entry |
| Trade 2 | 2% | Second entry |
| Total | 4% | Within limits |
Scenario: Adding To Winner (Scaling In)
Initial trade: 1 lot
- Entry 4,200, SL 4,190
- Price moves to 4,220
Add 1 lot:
- Entry 4,220, SL moved to 4,210 (original + new)
- Total: 2 lots, locked profit on first lot
Scenario: Correlated Positions
DANGEROUS:
- Long FCPO 2 lots
- Long FKLI 2 lots
- Both will move similarly!
Solution: Count correlated positions together for total risk.
The Math: Why Position Sizing Matters
Example: Two Traders, Same Strategy
Both:
- 60% win rate
- Average win: 25 ticks
- Average loss: 15 ticks
- 100 trades
Trader A: Proper Position Sizing
- Consistent 2% risk per trade
- Starting capital: RM 20,000
Trader B: Random Position Sizing
- Sometimes 1%, sometimes 5%
- Starting capital: RM 20,000
Results after 100 trades:
| Metric | Trader A | Trader B |
|---|---|---|
| Largest single loss | RM 400 | RM 1,000 |
| Max drawdown | 12% | 35% |
| Emotional stress | Low | High |
| Final capital | RM 32,000 | RM 18,000 |
Same strategy, very different results!
Position Sizing Rules
Rule 1: Calculate BEFORE Entry
Never enter without knowing:
- How many lots
- Where is SL
- What is $ risk
Rule 2: Round DOWN, Not Up
If calculation = 1.7 lots, trade 1 lot. Extra buffer for slippage and safety.
Rule 3: Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade
No exceptions. Ever. Even if "100% sure" setup.
Rule 4: Adjust For Volatility
| Market Condition | Adjustment |
|---|---|
| Normal volatility | Standard sizing |
| High volatility | Reduce size or widen SL |
| News events | Reduce size significantly |
Rule 5: Account For Overnight Risk
Overnight = Gap risk If holding overnight, consider reducing size or accounting for larger potential loss.
Quick Reference Formulas
Position Size Formula
Position Size (lots) = Risk Amount ÷ (SL ticks × RM 25)
Risk Amount Formula
Risk Amount = Capital × Risk %
Max Loss Formula
Max Loss = Position Size × SL ticks × RM 25
Examples
Given:
- Capital: RM 30,000
- Risk: 2% = RM 600
- SL: 12 ticks
Position Size:
= RM 600 ÷ (12 × RM 25)
= RM 600 ÷ RM 300
= 2 lots
Verify:
Max Loss = 2 lots × 12 ticks × RM 25
= RM 600
= 2% of RM 30,000 ✓
Position Sizing Checklist
Before EVERY trade:
- I know my total capital
- I have determined risk % (1-2%)
- I know my SL level (from chart)
- I have calculated SL in ticks
- I have calculated position size
- Position size rounded DOWN
- Total open risk < 6% of capital
Soalan Lazim (FAQ)
Q: Modal kecil, tak boleh trade 1 lot pun?
A: Options:
- Trade hanya setup dengan tight SL
- Grow account first before live trading
- Trade micro lots if available
Q: Boleh risk 5% jika sangat confident?
A: TIDAK. Overconfidence adalah musuh. 2% max, always.
Q: Kenapa round down?
A: Buffer untuk slippage dan unexpected moves. Better under-risk than over-risk.
Q: Position sizing untuk scalping berbeza?
A: Same principle. Tighter SL means more lots possible, but still limited by 2% rule.
Kesimpulan
Key Takeaways
| Concept | Remember |
|---|---|
| Risk % | Never more than 2% per trade |
| Formula | Risk Amount ÷ (SL × 25) |
| Consistency | Same % risk, every trade |
| Rounding | Always round DOWN |
| Verification | Check math before entry |
Action Steps
- Calculate your 2% risk amount today
- Create a position size reference table for your capital
- Commit to NEVER exceeding 2% per trade
- Journal your position sizing on every trade
- Review monthly: Are you following the rules?
"It's not about how much you make when you're right. It's about how much you keep when you're wrong. Position sizing protects what you've worked hard to earn."
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